Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 19.116774 22.172281 25.833035 30.626234 36.869227 44.926054 56.471842
2025-01-19 14.749568 18.087659 22.458031 28.822928 38.286073 52.669871 78.235096
2025-01-26 14.197161 18.313466 24.169614 33.656088 49.938525 80.093180 152.701217
2025-02-02 13.139146 17.537531 24.166123 35.775801 58.099594 107.307398 270.789944
2025-02-09 11.546317 15.688691 22.125400 33.894317 58.066255 117.526851 368.483169
2025-02-16 10.856168 15.087855 21.926859 35.163509 64.948562 151.309252 715.090405
2025-02-23 10.056001 14.198149 21.081394 34.968365 68.474822 179.896551 1348.367549
2025-03-02 9.379569 13.423893 20.308949 34.721554 71.811061 213.255290 3067.255935
2025-03-09 8.898560 12.915991 19.930730 35.207383 77.450312 267.779588 15633.771915
2025-03-16 8.249632 12.060513 18.801978 33.791206 76.883890 290.911294 119360.141775
2025-03-23 7.835786 11.571865 18.304106 33.725368 80.681346 352.903324 NaN
2025-03-30 7.280904 10.793730 17.168391 31.939454 77.948161 362.628472 NaN
2025-04-06 6.690534 9.939559 15.858528 29.661760 73.208168 353.013351 NaN
2025-04-13 6.210195 9.253079 14.826581 27.940711 70.062775 355.879019 NaN
2025-04-20 6.388188 9.750694 16.192698 32.547511 94.251747 845.447502 NaN
2025-04-27 6.296613 9.745456 16.528855 34.562887 110.166946 1668.360278 NaN
2025-05-04 5.916234 9.172155 15.596642 32.774164 105.766037 1735.923755 NaN
2025-05-11 5.790254 9.071103 15.675380 33.981039 118.900334 3693.749292 NaN
2025-05-18 5.575760 8.785359 15.317999 33.795546 124.031221 6443.126183 NaN
2025-05-25 5.374790 8.513067 14.965407 33.560906 128.925174 13078.084729 NaN
2025-06-01 5.232447 8.345969 14.835315 34.022740 139.474563 77015.319334 NaN
2025-06-08 4.990775 7.969924 14.193563 32.676068 135.491007 127523.303721 NaN
2025-06-15 4.841006 7.768447 13.942504 32.613428 141.922755 NaN NaN